美科技股今年重振雄风 明年美市有望创历史新高

Comments in Zaobao

I provided some comments for a Zaobao article: 美科技股今年重振雄风 明年美市有望创历史新高. (Zaobao is the mainstream Chinese newspaper in Singapore).

The article appeared on 14-Dec-2023.

Here are my comments:

1. 老虎资金管理公司（Tiger Fund Management）首席投资官陈嘉文在与《联合早报》一起回顾美市时说：“它让我想到一句话：‘赢者通吃’。因为标普500的‘七大’股票，就占了指数全年总回报率的约80％，它们的回报率也处于过去数10年来的高峰。”

   七大股票（Magnificent Seven）是苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达（Nvidia）、Meta Platforms和特斯拉。

2. ChatGPT掀起热潮时，陈嘉文曾预测下个万亿美元的公司很可能是人工智能服务提供商，英伟达实现了这个预测，5月市值突破1万亿美元大关。

3. 2024年美国、英国和许多其他经济体将举行选举。陈嘉文说：“地缘政治会继续是投资者的焦点。投资者相信会继续密切关注这几个领域的发展，并采取措施对冲地缘政治对市场的风险。”

4. 陈嘉文说，虽然不排除美国经济可能软着陆，通胀也可能继续下降，这些因素会推动标普500走高，但他认为整体上仍是下跌趋势，标普500会在明年底退守至4000点或4400点区间。

5. 至于被许多投资者追捧的科技股，陈嘉文较倾向人工智能相关股票。他说：“由人工智能相关技术驱动的股票，将能够乘势而上并实现大幅增长。我们预计人工智能的‘下一件大事’是文本到视频的生成。”

6. 陈嘉文也预计中概股将卷土重来，从10年低点重新飙升，中国政府的刺激措施将是催化剂。此外，中国科技股的估值低廉，盈利增长强劲，也是吸引人的地方。

Translated into English:

1. Tiger Fund Management CIO Edmund Chan remarked: “One phrase comes to mind: the “winner-takes-all”. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have alone accounted for about 80% of the total returns recorded on the S&P500 Index over the year. Notably, returns are also at a multi-decade high. Magnificent Seven include stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet、Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla.”

2. When ChatGPT became popular, Edmund Chan predicted that the next trillion-dollar company is likely to be an AI company. NVIDIA realized this prediction in May.

3. In 2024 there will be elections in the US, UK and many other economies. Edmund Chan said: "Geopolitics will also continue to take centre stage – investors will continue to closely watch developments in this space and to hedge geopolitical market risks.”

4. Edmund Chan said that a soft landing coupled with declining inflation could propel the S&P 500 higher. Depending on the US economy and election outcomes, the S&P 500 could trade to 4000 or 4400.

5. As for technology stocks, Edmund Chan prefers AI-related stocks. "Stocks driven by AI-related technologies will be able to ride the wave and achieve massive growth," he said. "We expect the 'next big thing' in AI to be text-to-video generation."

6. Edmund Chan also predicts that Chinese stocks making a comeback and soaring from decade-lows, with Chinese government stimulus measures being a catalyst. In addition, China technology stocks are attractive due to their low valuations and strong earnings growth.